A terrified man hanging from the top of a skyscraper by his fingertips, 1994. (Photo by Alfred Gescheidt/Getty Images)

A terrified man hanging from the top of a skyscraper by his fingertips, 1994. (Photo by Alfred Gescheidt/Getty Images)

Deutsche Bank Says the U.S. Is Likely Headed for a Recession

 

This is a fortune.com article.

 

There’s a 60% chance.

The U.S. has a 60% of entering a recession in the next 12 months—the highest probability since the Great Recession.

That ‘s according to a team of Deutsche Bank analysts looking at the fact that the difference between yields for long-term and short-term bonds has been shrinking. A so-called flat yield curve, which is the term for when there isn’t much difference between short and long-term rates is often an indicator used by economists to predict an oncoming recession. Short-term interest rates have risen above long-term interest rates before each of the last seven recessions.

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